Crude Oil Fluctuations Impact PET Resin Market Amid Geopolitical Tensions

In June, the crude oil market saw initial declines followed by a rebound. The OPEC+ meeting initially sparked pessimism, causing a significant drop—the largest in five months. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia and Russia collaborated to reassure the market. Wall Street and the EIA predicted potential third-quarter supply deficits due to rising demand, fostering expectations of a market recovery and sustaining oil price rebounds.

By late June, geopolitical tensions escalated, potentially driving oil prices higher. Despite reduced geopolitical risk premiums post-Iran tensions, unresolved conflicts intensified between Lebanon and Israel. Evacuations were initiated by the UK, France, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Concerns in the US grew over potential Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, prompting preparations for evacuations and suggesting heightened geopolitical risks could again push oil prices upward.

Crude oil prices play a crucial role in influencing polyester prices, as they directly impact the cost of raw materials and production energy essential for PET manufacturing. Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have led to an increase in polyester prices. Previously, insufficient demand had squeezed profits within the polyester industry. As the polyester market typically enters a seasonal downturn in the latter half of the year, several PET resin manufacturers have announced production cuts or maintenance plans. Against this backdrop, the interplay between volatile crude oil prices and evolving dynamics in polyester supply has driven an upward trend in PET prices.

For stakeholders in the PET demand sector, closely staying informed about international developments and industry dynamics is crucial, particularly given forecasts of potential crude oil price increases and adjustments in the supply chain. Downstream manufacturers are advised to consider integrating current production turnover, production cycles, and inventory levels to determine optimal procurement timing and develop a comprehensive procurement strategy.