China's Export Shipping Market Stabilizes, Key Routes See Freight Rate Rebound

Market Dynamics and Influencing Factors

Entering late March, the long-term contract signing season has brought a potential turnaround for the shipping market. If U.S. tariff policies become clearer, it is expected to further drive freight rates to stabilize or even rebound. However, before the official verification of April price increases, the spot container shipping market will continue to face intense fluctuations.

Geopolitical changes have also impacted the shipping market. If the Red Sea situation worsens, it will force vessels to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing fuel costs and reducing effective supply capacity. Additionally, freight rate fluctuations on routes such as Asia to South America may further intensify.

Freight Rate Performance on Key Routes

• Europe-Mediterranean Route: Transportation demand growth remained weak, with oversupply of capacity in Europe leading to continued declines in market freight rates.

• Middle East-Indian Subcontinent Route: Shipping lines reduced capacity during the Ramadan period, causing tight space and pushing up freight rates. The Middle East saw a 15.36% increase, while the Indian Subcontinent rose by 1.88%.

• South America Route: The transportation market continues to weaken, with sluggish cargo volumes. South America West rose by 5.6%, while South America East fell by 15.01%.

• Africa Route: Shipping lines reduced capacity, leading to tight space and rising prices. The West Africa route saw little change, while the North Africa route fell by 5.08%.

• Southeast Asia Route: Freight rates at Southeast Asian ports varied, but with the upcoming Songkran Festival and Eid al-Fitr in April, cargo volumes are expected to grow starting late March.

Outlook

In the short term, the supply-demand balance in the container shipping market remains relatively loose, and shipping companies face significant pressure in securing cargo. From a medium-term perspective, there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in shipping demand in the second quarter. However, whether this expectation can effectively support stable freight rate increases will depend on various factors, such as changes in cargo volumes and vessel load rates on specific routes.